The basis for the work was the risks in the business of agricultural enterprises associated with crop yields. The purpose of the work is to show the possibility of operational and strategic management of the apple tree yield using autonomous digital professional weather stations in the orchards of the Volgograd region. Using the data of weather stations, by means of the functions, the yield levels in the orchards of the Volgograd Regional Botanical Garden were calculated. The functions of digital weather stations while information gain for yield predicting and the factors that determine it are considered. The prospects for algorithm improvement in determining of the risks of agricultural work performing in the process of crop yield programming are shown. Based on average statistical data on yields, planned changes in the level of agricultural technology, mechanization and labor organization, market forecast, it is planned to obtain an apple yield of 23.0 t/ha in 2023–2025. In the future, by 2030, when seven-year-old Golden Delicious apple seedlings start bearing fruit, it is predicted to obtain 30.0–40.0 t/ha of first-class apples. When optimizing the main factors of growth and development, switching to new highly productive varieties of apple trees, managing the process of crop formation; introducing intensive technology methods, a rational system of fertilizers, irrigation, plant protection using a priori and operationally current information and a computer, it is programmed to obtain apple yields at the level of 70–80 t/ha and more.

Dobrenko Ilya E., Podkovyrov Igor Yu.

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